New Street Research estimates OpenAI could generate $110B in annual ad revenue by 2030.
Even the $24B bear case would be the fastest advertising ramp in history.
The key lever is commercial intent: if it rises from 20% of chats to the mid-30s, the monetisable surface nearly doubles without adding users.
The question is no longer whether conversational advertising becomes a major channel, but how quickly brands learn to compete inside it.
Google’s IPO legitimised search budgets. OpenAI’s could do the same for conversation.
Credit to Daniel Salmon and the New Street Research team for putting a serious framework around conversational advertising.
