ChatGPT is on track for unprecedented global scale, with OpenAI projecting 2.6 billion weekly users by 2030 nearly one-third of the world’s population.
However, almost 90% of these users are expected to be outside the U.S. and Canada, where monetization potential per user is significantly lower.
Although OpenAI forecasts $112 billion in non-subscription revenue from free users (including $46 billion in 2030 alone), benchmarks from Meta, Pinterest, and Snap suggest international ARPU can be multiple times lower than in North America.
This creates a structural tension: user growth is strongest in emerging markets, while revenue density is weakest there.
The core question isn’t whether ChatGPT can reach massive scale, it almost certainly will, but whether OpenAI can develop ad, commerce, and agent-based monetization models that work economically in markets like India and Brazil.
If it can’t, global dominance may translate into impressive usage metrics without proportional financial returns.
Source; The Information
