Ice cream sales go up.
Shark attacks go up.
Does ice cream cause shark attacks? 🍦🦈
Of course not.
Both increase because of a third factor: hot weather.
When it’s warm, more people go to the beach buying ice cream and swimming in the ocean.
The same mistake happens in marketing and data all the time.
Just because two metrics move together doesn’t mean one caused the other.
Before jumping to conclusions, ask:
What’s the underlying variable driving both?
Good analysis starts where assumptions stop
